Special Bets in Casinos: Opportunities with Prediction Markets

Prediction markets (also known as forecasting markets) are emerging as a global trend in the betting industry. These special bets - essentially novelty bets on real-world events beyond traditional betting markets - are gaining attention from casino operators. By incorporating prediction-driven specials, a casino platform can broaden its offerings, engage new audiences, and enhance player retention. Casino operators worldwide, from Europe to Canada and Australia, are exploring this innovation to stay ahead of the curve.

Understanding Special Bets and Prediction Markets

Special bets refer to unique proposition wagers on non-traditional outcomes in the real world. They are often called novelty bets or “specials” in casino contexts, covering events beyond sports or casino games. For example, a sportsbook might let users bet on whether a famous athlete will come out of retirement this year. In the UK and Europe, operators routinely offer odds on pop-culture and political events - from who the next James Bond will be to the winner of a reality TV show.

Prediction markets take this concept further by turning such bets into tradable markets. Participants buy and sell shares of an event’s outcome, with prices updating in real time to reflect the crowd’s perceived probability. In other words, they function like exchanges for event outcomes. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, for instance, allow users to wager on everything from election results to how many tweets Elon Musk will send in a week. This approach transforms news and current events into dynamic betting opportunities. In essence, special bets and prediction markets represent an expansion of betting into new domains - converting public events and questions into engaging forecasting markets for players.

Why Casino Platforms Should Embrace Special Bets

Integrating prediction-market-style special bets can yield significant benefits for operators, even if these markets are a niche. While novelty betting won’t rival core gaming revenue (it’s “not a cash cow” in direct profits), it serves as a potent marketing, retention, and engagement tool. Below are key advantages of adding special bets to a casino platform’s portfolio:

• Higher engagement & retention: Players find novelty markets intriguing, which keeps them active on the platform. These wagers act as a retention play and an engagement driver, encouraging repeat visits and longer play sessions.

• Free publicity & buzz: Quirky, high-profile special bets often generate viral buzz. A major political or pop-culture betting market can command global attention and even get picked up by mainstream media - “this is marketing gold” for an operator. The organic publicity boosts brand visibility at little cost.

• New customer acquisition: Offering novelty bets on topics like elections or award shows helps attract bettors who might not otherwise engage with a sportsbook. These unique markets act as a hook to draw in casual fans and new demographics who are less interested in traditional sports betting.

• Diversified portfolio & cross-sell: Special bets keep the platform’s content fresh and diversified. They can be featured in a dedicated “Specials” section, showcasing that the casino offers more than just the usual fare. Critically, these bets also serve as a gateway - many casual novelty bettors, once drawn in by a fun market, will explore the core sportsbook or casino games, deepening their engagement with the platform.

It’s important to note that novelty bets remain a small piece of the revenue pie - often just ~1-2% of an operator’s betting volume. Their true value lies not in direct profits but in the engagement, brand positioning, and player lifecycle benefits outlined above. In short, special bets punch above their weight in strategic value, even if their handle is modest.

Global Trends in Prediction Markets

Globally, prediction markets are on the rise (surging in popularity). In Europe, especially, what many consider novelty bets have long been part of the mainstream betting culture. These wagers - the “specials in casino” and sportsbook offerings - cover everything from politics to entertainment. European bookmakers even take bets on the next Pope or the next James Bond, and run markets for TV competition winners. Such novelty bets are far more prevalent across Europe than in markets like the U.S., highlighting a cultural openness to betting on virtually any topic of public interest. (That said, the trend shows signs of catching on elsewhere as operators recognize the engagement potential.)

Major news events have fueled the growth of prediction markets worldwide. For instance, the 2024 U.S. presidential election drew a record number of people to bet on the outcome, and election-focused prediction markets have “continued to grow ever since”. Millions of dollars were wagered globally on that single event, underscoring how these markets can captivate bettors’ attention on a global scale. This phenomenon isn’t limited to politics - any widely followed event (an Oscars ceremony, a viral internet trend, a major sports milestone) can become a betting market that transcends borders via online platforms.

Technology and innovation are also driving this global surge. Decentralized online exchanges have made prediction markets accessible to anyone with an internet connection. Polymarket, one of the leading on-chain platforms, reportedly saw its trading volume explode by over 300% during the 2024 election season, contributing to cumulative volumes of over $1 billion across tens of thousands of user-created markets. New entrants are launching with various twists (from crypto-based exchanges to AI-driven platforms), expanding the ecosystem. Even traditional finance is taking note: mainstream brokers like Robinhood have begun offering event contracts, signaling that prediction markets are edging into the financial and betting mainstream. In summary, the appetite for forecasting markets is global and growing, turning niche bets into a worldwide betting frontier.

Key Players Driving the Prediction Market Boom

Several companies are at the forefront of this emerging niche, offering platforms for special bets:

• Polymarket: A decentralized, blockchain-based prediction market platform often regarded as a pioneer in this space. Polymarket offers user-created markets on almost anything - from elections and economic indicators to crypto prices and pop culture events. It has achieved substantial scale, with on-chain data showing a surge in activity around major events (e.g. a 300% volume spike during the 2024 election) and helping push the total traded volume on leading crypto prediction markets past $1 billion.

• Kalshi: A U.S.-based, fully regulated event exchange and the first prediction market to receive CFTC approval in the United States. Kalshi runs legal “event contracts” on subjects like economic data releases, weather occurrences and more, operating under strict compliance. By securing regulatory green lights, Kalshi is bringing prediction markets into the U.S. financial mainstream - it remains one of the only platforms in this niche legal in all 50 states.

• PredX: An emerging platform that merges AI technology with prediction markets. PredX allows communities to trade on event outcomes with the assistance of generative AI agents. The platform touts an innovative approach to forecasting, claiming over 190,000 users and more than 1,000 AI-generated event markets in its early launch phase. By leveraging AI for market creation and analysis, PredX represents a novel direction in the special bets landscape.

• Aver: A decentralized peer-to-peer betting and prediction exchange built on the Solana blockchain. Launched in 2022 and backed by veterans of both the crypto and sports-betting industries, Aver delivers a Web3 trading experience for event outcomes. The platform enables trustless, non-custodial trading and settlement of bets without reliance on any central bookie. With its low fees and high transaction speeds (thanks to Solana), Aver exemplifies how blockchain tech can make betting markets more efficient. It’s a glimpse into the possible future of global betting, where exchanges run on decentralized infrastructure.

(The prediction market space also includes other notable names and exchanges, but the above represent some of the key players pushing the concept forward.)

Integrating Special Bets in Casino Platforms

For casino and sportsbook operators, rolling out special bets or prediction markets is both an opportunity and a challenge. On one hand, adding these “specials in casino” offerings can differentiate a platform and boost engagement. On the other hand, successful implementation requires careful planning, resources, and risk management. Operators must understand what they’re getting into and execute diligently. Here are a few considerations for integrating special bets into an existing casino platform:

• Market selection & data: Choose special bet markets wisely. Events should have clearly defined, verifiable outcomes (e.g. election results, award winners, etc.) and enough public interest to generate activity. Because these markets don’t have seasons or past performance stats like sports, operators often need to pull data from news, polls, or expert analysis to set odds. Tapping into reliable data feeds and information sources is crucial to make informed odds for novelty events.

• Risk management: Novelty and prediction markets can be volatile and unpredictable. Unlike traditional sports betting, there may be sudden news that drastically changes an event’s outlook (a surprise political development, a leaked reality show result, etc.). Operators should be prepared to adjust odds quickly and even suspend markets if needed. It’s not a plug-and-play segment - without skilled traders and proper tools, an operator could misprice a market and see sharp bettors exploit it. Experienced players and arbitrage bots will quickly seize on any odds errors. Thus, dedicating trading staff or automated risk-management systems to special bets is essential to avoid heavy losses on an ill-informed line.

• Regulatory compliance: Before launching special bet markets, operators must ensure they comply with local gambling regulations. Some jurisdictions prohibit betting on certain topics (for example, political elections or weather events might be off-limits in some regions). It’s important to vet each potential market through a legal lens. Compliance also extends to how outcomes are verified – using official sources or trusted oracles for settlement of bets to maintain integrity.

• User experience & education: Integrating special bets into the casino platform should be done in a user-friendly way. Many operators create a separate menu or tab (often labeled “Specials” or “Novelty”) in their sportsbook or casino interface, so that these markets are easily discoverable without cluttering the main sports betting pages. Clear descriptions should accompany each market, since casual bettors may need context on, say, a political event or award show. Educating users on how prediction markets work - for instance, explaining that odds may fluctuate or that these are for entertainment - can also help set expectations. The goal is to make these new markets seamless and fun, not confusing.

When executed thoughtfully, introducing special bets can significantly enhance a platform’s appeal. It draws attention, creates “shareable” betting moments, and can convert one-time novelty bettors into regular customers. In fact, some of the most innovative operators use special bets as a gateway to deeper engagement, integrating these markets strategically and using them as a gateway to deeper engagement with their core offerings, thereby expanding the possibilities of what betting can be. In the end, special bets offer forward-thinking casinos a chance to broaden their product horizon - to offer not just games, but an interactive way for players to engage with the world at large. Operators that master this integration could see tangible boosts in user activity and loyalty, proving that a well-executed novelty betting strategy is worth the wager.